2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

research with national laboratories, universities and industry partners to overcome technical barriers to the reliability, cost and performance of fuel cell systems. Fuel cells are currently being developed for passenger vehicles, buildings and small applications such as computers. 1 D. Improvements to Heavy Duty Vehicles The fourth supposition regarding the potential for improvements to the vehicle fleet in the Puget Sound region is what improvements in the fuel economy of heavy duty vehicles might be possible by 2040. This area is less robust in terms of the research and data available, but also has perhaps the most potential in significant improvements due to the relatively large share of carbon emissions per vehicle and the overall increase in freight truck emissions in the last 20 years. Research conducted on this topic included studies and analyses conducted by the following agencies or institutions (a full bibliography of sources is included at the end of this white paper): • U.S. EPA • Federal Highway Administration • Air and Waste Management Association • David Suzuki Foundation • Levelton Consultants, Ltd. • U.S. Department of Energy • Washington State Department of Ecology • California Air Resources Board There are a variety of factors in play when discussing heavy duty, or freight, truck emissions. These include not just the efficiency of the vehicles, but also details with the movement of freight such as the number of small shipments, an increase in the number of "empty" miles, increased idling due to traffic congestion, etc. This analysis focuses only on the technological improvements possible to heavy duty vehicles and engines. There are numerous regulatory and voluntary mechanisms currently being pursued to reduce emissions from heavy duty trucks. For example, EPA has established rules related to both diesel fuel and heavy duty engines, as has the California Air Resources Board. The Washington State Department of Ecology is pursuing several strategies to reduce diesel emissions, including retrofitting older diesel vehicles and an idle reduction campaign. Thus far, these programs and regulations have focused primarily on the reduction of particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions from heavy duty vehicles, although it is expected there will be corollary reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. While there is not a lot of research currently available on the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from technological improvements to heavy duty vehicles, what research is available suggests reductions in the range of 25-50%. These improvements include hybrid vehicle systems, aerodynamic and rolling resistance improvements, and engine and fuel improvements, among other strategies. While we do expect this area to yield significant benefits in the future, our current assumptions of these benefits will remain conservative until further research supports a larger reduction potential, and are categorized into the following two scenarios: • Likely Scenario: 5% This scenario is comprised of a fairly conservative assumption that an additional 5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from technological improvements to heavy duty vehicles can be achieved in the Puget Sound region by 2040. Given the aggressive strategies currently being pursued in Washington State and the Puget Sound region related to diesel emissions, as well as activities being undertaken at the national level to reduce emissions from heavy duty vehicles and diesel fuel, it is likely that a 5% additional reduction over the next 30 years will be possible. • Aggressive Scenario: 10% This scenario is comprised of a more aggressive assumption that an additional 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from technological improvements to heavy duty vehicles can be achieved in the Puget Sound region by 2040. Given all the reasons identified above we feel that 10% is an achievable target, but with the L-6 Appendix L: Climate Change Background