2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

RESULTS: RISKS VARY BY RE ON & SECTOR Heat is a critical issue for the health of businesses as well as that of hurm;an beings. On theft own, rising tempera- tures can have significant negative impacts on health and also labor productivity, But high temperatures are also at the root of several other important climate impacts that have long been recognized by scientists: • Hotter air on the Earth's surface leads to higher ocean temperatures, which causes ocean expansion and seq. level rise; E l gher temperatures accelerate tine rates ice melts, further elevating average sea levels; • A warmer atmosphere makes extreme precipitation more likely, which is expected to make wet regi wetter, but could also make dry regions even drier. lich and E3ecause s le U.S. is such a large and geograpril..:asl.4 diverse country, it will experience every one of these iim-ate impacts in the next century. Even the individual sectors we studied have regional variations: For agricul- ture, for instance, the national story is one of an industry able to adapt by changing where and what farmers plant; et the say ie time, the story within particular regions is quite different, as individual farmers potentially aban- don traditional crops or move away from the farming business altogether. For the energy industry, the story in the warming North is starkly different than in the increasingly unbearably hot South. Sea levels, too, vary significantly across the U.S., and even across cities along the same coastline: For example, sea level rise at New York will likely be higher than at Boston, and sea level rise at San Diego will.likely be higher than at San Francisco. As in a standard business risk assessmene looked at the data to see exactly where the greatest risks lie, and confirmed that some regions and economic sectors face extreme and unacceptable risks. These are some of our gravest concerns; RISKY BUSINESS The Economic Risks of Climate Change In the United States Rising seas and greater coastal storm damage already threaten the financial value and viability of many properties and infrastructure along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast. If we stay on our current climate path, some homes and commercial prop- -year mortgages in places in Virginia, North Carolina; Pe41 Jersey, Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana and elsewf.ere could quite literally be underwater before the note is paid off, rr temperatures v ill also red, ce labor productivity. as some regions —especially the Southeast and tnwest--become too hot by ry for people i k outside during parts of gy system, siniu ;.; decreasing system efficiency and performance as system operators struggle to cool down facilities, and increasing electricity con- sumption and costs dLle to a surge in demand for air conditioning. As parts of the nation heat up, the worst health mpacts will be felt among the poor —many ohom work or even live outdoors or can't afford air conditioning at home —and among those too elderly or frail to physically withstand the heat or get themselves to air-conditioned facilities. More than any other factor, our direct economic expo- sure to climate change will be determined by where we do business. For that reason, we present our findings below in terms of the major regions of the U.S., and then identify how climate change will affect critical sectors within those region.. Still, as any business person knows, these impacts won't be contained within regional )ound- ar?es; the ripple effects are likely to resonate throughout th economy. Put another way, just because it's not hot where you are doesn't mean you won't feel the heat of ,.lire ate change.