Ordinance 2529-01 - Laserfiche WebLink

sECTTON-5:-STUDENT ENROLLMENT-TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS - Historical And Current Enrollment Trends Student enrollment in the Everett School District was relatively constant between 1973 and 1983. This has increased steadily since then due to a healthy economy and an active housing market. Over the last few years, however,the rate of growth in enrollment has lessened. This phenomenon has also become apparent in other large urban school districts in Snohomish and King Counties. In order to identify the changing trends in student enrollment, in 1999 the school district undertook a comprehensive student enrollment analysis. This analysis identified a variety of current individual trends and how they tend to support or inhibit enrollment growth. The cumulative future effect of these trends on student enrollment appears to be a continued reduction in the growth rate, with possibly a flattening-out of enrollment over the next 3 to 6 years. Enrollment projections beyond that time require assumptions regarding economic conditions and demographic trends. 2005 Enrollment Projections This CFP has been prepared using enrollment projections through 2005 generated by OSPI, which uses a cohort-survival method of predicting enrollment. This method tracks enrollment each year at each grade span as students move through the K-12 system, and projects enrollment based on actual enrollment changes over the previous six years. OSPI enrollment projections are presented in Figure 2 and Tables 4 and 5. The methodology is described in more detail in Appendix B. Note that all enrollment figures shown in this CFP are FTE as of October 1 of the year indicated. Table 4 also contains enrollment forecasts from two other sources for comparison purposes: A modified cohort projection prepared for the District by Orin Fjeran of School Services for Tomorrow, Inc., and a projection prepared by Shockey/Brent, Inc. based on a percentage of the District's population as predicted by OFM and Snohomish County. Based on the OSPI enrollment projections, a total of 343 students are expected to be added to the District by 2005, an increase of 2% over the 1999 enrollment levels. Table 5 provides a breakdown of the OSPI enrollment projections by grade span every year from 1999 to 2005. This table indicates that all grade spans will experience both increases and decreases at various times during this time frame. By 2005, the elementary and high school enrollments are predicted to be higher than the 1999 enrollment, and the middle school enrollment is predicted to be lower. 2012 Enrollment Projections Long-range enrollment projections are, by their nature, much more speculative than short-range projections. Nevertheless,they are useful in developing comprehensive plans for future facilities and sites. Enrollment projections for 2012 are presented in Table 6 using the OFM-ratio method because neither OSPI nor Fjeran produce projections that far into the future. The OFM projections for 2012 predict total enrollment in the District will increase to 19,048, an increase of 8% over the 1999 enrollment levels. 2012 enrollments are predicted to be higher than 1999 enrollments at all grade spans. An analysis of future capacities and facilities needs is provided in Section 6 of this CFP. 4 Washington State Office of Financial Management Everett School District Section 5 - 1 Capital Facilities Plan