Ordinance 2529-01 - Laserfiche WebLink

PROJECTION OF ENROLLMENT DATA Cohort-Survival or Grade-Succession Technique Development of a long-rang school building program requires a careful forecast of school enrollment indicating the projected number of children who will attend school each year. The following procedures are suggested for determining enrollment projections: 1. Enter in the lower left corner of the rectangle for each year the number of pupils actually enrolled in each grade on October 1 as reported on the October Report of School District Enrollment, Form M-70, Column A. (For years prior to October 1, 1965, enter pupils actually enrolled as reported in the county superintendent's annual report, Form A-1) 2. In order to arrive at enrollment projections for kindergarten and/or grade one pupils, determine the percent that the number of such pupils each year was of the number shown for the immediately preceding year. Compute an average of the percentages, enter it in the column headed "Avg. % of Survival", and apply such average percentage in projecting kindergarten and/or grade one enrollments for the next six years. 3. For grade two and above determine the percent of survival of the enrollment in each grade for each year to the enrollment. In the next lower grade during the preceding year and place this percentage in the upper right corner of the rectangle. (For example, if there were 75 pupils in actual enrollment in grade one on October 1, 1963, and 80 pupils were in actual enrollment in grade two on October 1, 1964, the percent of survival would be 80/75, or 106.7%. If the actual enrollment on October 1, 1965 in grade three had further increased to 100 pupils, the percent of survival to grade three would be 100/80, or 125%). Compute an average of survival percentages for each year for each grade and enter it in the column, "Avg. % of Survival". In order to determine six-year enrollment projections for grade two and above, multiply the enrollment in the next lower grade during the preceding year by the average percent of survival. For example, if, on October 1 of the last year of record, there were 100 students in grade one and the average percent of survival to grade two was 105, then 105% of 100 would result in a projections of 105 students in grade two on October 1 of the succeeding year. 4. If, after calculating the "Projected Enrollment", there are known factors which will further influence the projections., a statement should be prepared showing the nature of those factors, involved and their a:iticipated effect upon any portion of the calculated projection. *Kindergarten students are projected based on a regression line. B-1