2005/06/15 Council Agenda Packet

Consultants' Final Report - Pab 20 understood by popular media or the public. Nevertheless, each of the seven Part I crime trends is consistent with a "random" process and, hence, each is amenable to a statistical analysis. The five Part II crime trends, in contrast, are not at all consistent with a "random" process. To illustrate, note that total sex offenses increase (from 320 to 480) by fifty percent from 1987 to 1988 and then decrease (from 480 to 232) by fifty percent from 1988 to 1989. Annual changes of this magnitude lie well beyond the bounds of Normal "random" variation. In fact, the anomalous 1988 total is due to a concerted enforcement effort by the Garden Grove Police Department. Lacking complete information on Part II enforcement activities during the 1981-1990 decade, we cannot attribute changes in Part II crime rates to the operation of adult businesses. Although we report effects for Part II crimes in subsequent analyses, the only internally valid effects are for Part I crimes. Figure 3 shows another type of trend. Examining the day of the week of the seven Part I crimes, a distinct pattern emerges. We see here that the occurrence of Personal crimes peaks on weekends. Conversely, Property crimes peak during midweek and are least likely to occur on weekends. The basis for this pattern is well established in theory: crimes occur when the opportunity is made available to a person who is inclined to commit criminal actions. Opportunity is defined differently for Personal and Property crimes, however. Personal crimes (especially anonymous robbery and assault committed against strangers) are best EVER00364