2007/04/04 Council Agenda Packet

We will issue our subconsultant agreement to Dr. Palmer at the U of W after we have your approval to proceed. (Text of Richard Palmer September 14, 2005 e-mail to HDR below) Dear Jim: I have talked to Phil Mote, the Washington State Climatologist, and Matthew Wiley, the Research Engineer that works in my group and have reached some conclusions about what path I think is best in evaluating the climate impacts on the Everett water supply. Dr. Mote will be able to supply a forecast of monthly variations of climate in the future. I anticipate that he will provide an array of monthly, or seasonal, values for the impact on both precipitation and temperatures. I have reviewed some of the early results and they appear to fall in line with what I would expect.The scenarios range from a .5 degree C change by 2050 for the least severe estimates to a 4 degree C impacts by 2100 for a more severe estimate. I have discussed with Matthew the effort required to generate the streamflows for all points needed for the Everett Sim model, and the total effort for generating the scenarios(which include current hydrology, 2000 climate model, 2050 (pessimistic), 2050 (optimistic), 2100 (pessimistic), and 2100 (optimistic) is$9,200 including all overhead and benefits. I do not know if it is best for the UW to cut a fixed cost contract with HDR directly or for us to attempt to develop a small contract with Everett directly. I realize that you are on a very tight budget, but these flows will have the advantage of: 1. They will reflect the new scenarios being developed by Dr. Mote and the Climate Impacts Group 2. The flows will be generated by a distributed hydrology model that is designed to evaluate the impacts of changing climate conditions 3. The cost is modest in terms of the information that will be generated. This is really the only way to incorporate the direct forecasts of climate change into the yield model. We can get started on this as soon as we can arrange for the contract and should be done 6-8 weeks after we start. I anticipate that the primary deliverable will be the streamflows and a brief report describing the basic assumptions and the process used to generate the streamflows in the model. Please feel free to call me if you have any questions concerning what I have outlined and I would be happen to expand where necessary. I hope we can more ahead with this quickly. Rick Dr. Richard N. Palmer Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Box 352700 University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195-2700 www.taq.washington.edu Office (206) 685-2658/ Fax (206) 685-9185/ Cell (206)683-0701 15 Everett CWP 3 of 8 Amendment No. 1-Exhibit A-I