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12 <br /> Scope of Work <br /> Continued <br /> peak flow estimates will be used to develop conceptual designs for water flow <br /> CIP projects. <br /> 3.4.3 Climate Change Hydrologic Analysis <br /> This task quantifies the effects of climate change on the future predicted <br /> stormwater runoff. The procedures of this task use of appropriate methods to <br /> extend the historical National Weather Service Everett precipitation and pan <br /> evaporation modifications to the year 2100. The National Weather Service <br /> Everett hourly precipitation currently in WWHM4 is for the period of October 1948 <br /> through March 1997 and will be extended to 2010 as a part of this task. <br /> The University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System Climate <br /> Impacts Group has selected the following models and scenarios to represent the <br /> lowest, middle, and highest expected climate warming for the Pacific Northwest: <br /> • Lowest: GISS-ER B1 <br /> • Middle: ECHAM5 SRES A2 <br /> • Highest: IPSL_CM4 A2 <br /> For stormwater modeling work the middle scenario (ECHAM5 SRES A2) will be <br /> used to provide input on how to modify existing historical precipitation and pan <br /> evaporation data. Otak's subconsultant, Clear Creek Solutions, will extend the <br /> period to WWHM4 data set to 2010 in 15-minute increments and perform the <br /> analysis, which will provide: <br /> • Modification of meteorological data to include climate change impacts <br /> • Analysis of a future conditions simulation scenario that includes climate <br /> change impacts <br /> 3.5 Draft Characterization Section <br /> Otak will prepare a draft of the characterization section (section 1 of each Basin Plan) <br /> for each basin. The draft section will summarize the information and analyses <br /> performed in Tasks 3.1 through 3.4. City comments on the draft section will be <br /> incorporated into each final Basin Plan as a part of Task 6. <br /> Task 3 Assumptions: <br /> • City staff will prepare the information review summary for each basin <br /> • City staff will prepare most GIS database maps and figures and will manage the <br /> GIS databases <br /> City of Everett—Surface Water Comprehensive Plan Phase 2 8 <br /> February 13, 2012 133 utak <br />