2012/07/25 Council Agenda Packet

The study estimates the number of canines in every community in the country based on federal government data. The model correlates a wide range of demographic and geographic variables, all of which are available at the community level, with known canine populations in 13 jurisdictions utilizing non- linear programming techniques. In other words, the model minimizes the differences between actual and predicted canine populations in the control cities by estimating coefficients across a wide range of available data. Using this model, the analysis was able to determine that the number of dogs in a specific town is a function of the total number of households, total population, physical land area, the structural type of housing, the gender and ethnic mix of the community, the poverty rate and the marriage rate. Once the total number of dogs is estimated, the number of pit-bull-type dogs is calculated using national estimates of the number of dogs affected by the breed- discrimination legislation.26 Based on this model it is estimated that there are 72,114,000 dogs in the United States, with an estimated 5,010,934 pit-bull-type dogs. Note that these are not genetic pit-bulls, but rather dogs which may be identified as pit-bulls simply due to their size and shape. According to the study, if the United States were to enact a breed-discriminatory law, it would cost $459,138,163 to enforce annually.27To cite a single community, the fiscal cost of a breed-discriminatory law in the District of Columbia would be $965,990 annually.28 The costs include those related to animal control and enforcement, kenneling and veterinary care, euthanasia and carcass disposal, litigation from residents appealing or contesting the law, and DNA testing. Other costs not included in this estimate may vary depending on current resources available to a specific community's animal control program. They may include additional shelter veterinarians, increased enforcement staffing, and capital improvements associated with increased shelter space needed. Indeed, since the fiscal-impact calculator came into use, 37 cities or counties have decided against breed-discriminatory laws, while only 10 have opted for breed 26 This was an average of 6.9 percent,and was calculated from local and national statistics found on media reports,animal activist reports,federal government reports,and from dog-bite victims groups. 27 Ibid. 28 Dunham,supra(The cost to other individual cities and counties can be determined online by using the study's fiscal impact calculator).