Ordinance 3454-15 with Exhibits A- C

EVERETT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN ECONOMIC Historical trends have clearly linked economic growth with growth in vehicle travel. That began to change in the early 2000's as VMT began to decline even while national gross domestic product was still increasing before the recession. Factors such as labor force participation and median household income, which showed strong growth historically, are still linked to changes in VMT. Looking into the future, it is unlikely that the income growth seen over the past years can be sustained. Moreover, labor force participation has likely peaked, given saturation of women in the workforce and the aging population. Trend for VMT and need for auto -oriented Infrastructure: DECREASING DEMOGRAPHIC Predicting future travel trends requires understanding how future generations will travel. Millennials have purchased vehicles and obtained licenses at a lower rate than previous generations. Millennials are attracted to communities with a full array of transportation mode choices, although some still prefer driving. Even as Millennials age, their preference for urban living should continue to be at higher levels than previous generations and their relative VMT will be less. A potential counter to this decrease is the fact that the Baby Boomer generation will remain active longer than previous generations and thus will have a higher demand for travel. Trend for VMT and need for auto -oriented Infrastructure: DECREASING TECHNOLOGICAL One of the largest factors that will impact travel patterns is the changing technology that shapes how we travel. Technology surrounding autonomous vehicles, such as braking assistance, lane guidance, and blind -spot recognition, is already beginning to emerge in the market. When fully autonomous, this technology provides the ability to substantially increase capacity due to shorter following distances and a reduction in accidents. Additionally, the inclusion of previous non -driving populations such as the disabled and the elderly will increase the number of vehicles on the road. VMT could also increase if people choose to send their cars home while at work to avoid parking fees. On the other hand, VMT could decrease if fewer people own cars and autonomous vehicles are more effectively shared in large car -share fleets. While fully autonomous vehicles are expected to be available by 2020, there will still be decades until a majority of the vehicles on the road are fully autonomous. This is due to a number of factors, including how quickly vehicles are bought and sold, the affordability of the technology, and the ability for the legal and insurance systems to adapt to these changes. Trend for VMT and need for auto -oriented Infrastructure: NJ UNCLEAR WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR EVERETT? In planning for the future, the City of Everett should understand the uncertainties surrounding travel forecasting and should provide a transportation system that can adapt to a variety of potential futures. Over time, the City should monitor shifts in demographics, where people are choosing to live and the availability of alternative forms of transportation to ensure that its infrastructure is accommodating changing needs, in whatever form that is. In the mid-term, the City should seek to foster the adoption of certain vehicle technologies, such as electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, as they can reduce the environmental costs of driving. This Transportation Element Update includes a new policy to direct that electric vehicles be accommodated as appropriate on City streets and that electric and fuel cell vehicle fueling is convenient across the City. TRANSPORTATION ELEMENT 62