Ordinance 3010-07 - Laserfiche WebLink

SECTION 5 - STUDENT ENROLLMENT Historical and Current Enrollment Trends Student enrollment in the Everett School District was relatively constant between 1973 and 1983. From 1983 to 2001 enrollment increased steadily due to a healthy local economy and an active housing market, and then gradually decreased through 2004 due to changing economic conditions. Fueled by historically low interest rates and an active housing market in the Mill Creek East UGA Plan area, District enrollment rose again in 2005. District enrollment projected to increase in 2006, decline slightly in 2007 and then rise through 2010 before slightly declining again in 2011. Enrollment projections from 2011 to 2025 are linked directly to GMA population forecasts, and are expected to show a gradual increase. 2006-2011 Enrollment Projections This CFP has been prepared using an OSPI enrollment projection from 2006 through 2011. This enrollment projection method uses a historical cohort -survival method. This method tracks enrollment each year at each grade span as students move through the K-12 system, and projects enrollment based on actual enrollment changes over the previous six years. The OSPI methodology is described in more detail in Appendix C. OSPI enrollment projections are presented in Tables 4, 5 and 6, and OFM - Ratio enrollment projections are presented in Table 7. Please note that all enrollment figures shown in this CFP are FTE as of October 1 of the year indicated. Table 6 also contains enrollment forecasts from two other sources for comparison purposes: A modified cohort projection prepared for the District by Orin Fjeran of School Services for Tomorrow, Inc., and an OFM Ratio projection prepared by ShockeyBrent, Inc. based on a percentage of the District's population as predicted by OFM and Snohomish County. Based on the OSPI enrollment projections, overall District enrollment will increase by 328 students over the next six years, an increase of 1.85% from the 2005 levels. Table 6 provides a breakdown of the OSPI enrollment projections by grade span every year from 2005 to 2011. This table indicates that elementary school enrollments will rise through 2011, middle school enrollments will peak in 2006 and again in 2011, and high school enrollments will peak in 2006 and then decline through 2011. 2025 Enrollment Projections Long-range enrollment projections are, by their nature, much more speculative than short-range projections. Nevertheless, they are useful in developing comprehensive plans for future facilities and sites. Enrollment projections for 2025 are presented in Table 7 using the OFM-ratio method since neither OSPI nor Fj eran produce projections that far into the future. The OFM projections for 2025 indicate that total enrollment in the District will increase to 21,900 FTE, an increase of 24% over the 2005 enrollment levels. 2025 enrollments are predicted to be higher than 2005 enrollments at all grade levels. An analysis of future capacities and facilities needs is provided in Section 6. Everett School District 5-1 Capital Facilities Plan