Laserfiche WebLink
Fjeran Enrollment Projection Methodology <br />Orin Fjeran, School Services for Tomorrow <br />School Services for Tomorrow uses a Modified Cohort of Survival method for predicting <br />student enrollment. A cohort of survival is identified, which is the percentage of survival <br />of one grade level to the next grade level the following year. A series of years are <br />evaluated to determine an average cohort to be applied to the present known grades at a <br />given period in time. The average percentage of survival for each grade is then applied to <br />the latest grade enrollments to determine a projection for each grade for the next several <br />years. <br />Kindergarten projections are calculated by obtaining the number of births for the City of <br />Everett over the last several years, and applying a calculated percentage to these numbers <br />to estimate what the kindergarten enrollment will be five years after these babies were <br />born. <br />Housing permit data is then used to improve the accuracy of student enrollment <br />projections. New housing construction is tracked throughout the District and updated <br />student generation rates are used to produce estimates for students entering the District. <br />These figures are used to modify the cohort projections to give a more accurate picture of <br />what the enrollments may look like in the future. <br />Everett School District E-1 Capital Facilities Plan <br />