Ordinance 3010-07 - Laserfiche WebLink

happened in King County in 1999 and 2000 when overall enrollment in the county declined for two straight years. For the District forecast the cohort survival method is combined with information about market share gains and losses, and information about population growth due to new housing construction. The market share factor reflects the number of students within the District who are likely to enroll in private schools or other school districts. The projection used in this report assumes a loss factor of one-tenth of a percentage point annually for the period of the forecast. The population/housing growth factor reflects the number of new students that are likely to be generated by housing starts within the District's boundaries. The forecasts assume a growth factor of 1.01 for both elementary and secondary students for the period between 2006 and 2011. This number represents additional growth above and beyond what is projected by the cohort survival ratios. Based on this projection methodology headcount enrollment is expected to increase to 14,645 by 2011. FTE enrollment is projected to increase to 13,974. Recognizing the uncertainty of the assumptions regarding growth, a higher growth model was also produced which predicts a headcount enrollment of 15,309 and an FTE enrollment of 14,611 by 2011. A projection based on OFM population projections for Snohomish County was also produced. The District's October 2005 FTE enrollment (without the Skills Center) is 13,540. This is 2.06% of the estimated Snohomish County 2005 population of 655,800. Assuming that this percentage remains constant, the District's FTE enrollment would grow to 15,081 FTE by 2011. An additional projection, using Snohomish County provided population data specific to the Mukilteo School District, results in slightly lower projection of 15,031 FTE by October of 2011. It should be noted that both of these estimates are higher than the either the medium or high range District forecast, but they also assume much greater population growth in the Mukilteo school district than has been seen in recent years. A comparison of the FTE projections derived from the different methodologies is provided in Table 7. The table also includes a projection from OSPI that uses a cohort survival methodology. Since the original OSPI projection includes the Skills Center the original numbers had to be adjusted to make them comparable. In order to create comparable numbers, the OSPI headcount forecast was converted to FTE (based on the assumption that FTE was approximately 95% of the headcount). The October 2005 FTE enrollment for the Skills Center (approximately 750) was then subtracted from each year of the forecast. (This deduction is based on the assumption that the Skills Center FTE would remain constant). This forecast shows the lowest growth trend for the District. It should be remembered, however, that OSPI's kindergarten forecasts are typically linear extrapolations from the current trend and do not consider increases or decreases in the birth trend. For this reason the OSPI forecast is probably underestimating the future growth that is likely due to an increase in the birth cohort. 13