2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

L-1: VEHICLE AND FUEL TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS Assumptions and Methodology for Potential Improvements to the 2040 Puget Sound Vehicle Fleet and Fuel Mix INTRODUCTION As part of the Four -Part Greenhouse Gas Strategy, Transportation 2040 makes some assumptions about the market penetration of electric and other alternative fuel vehicles, less carbon -intensive fuels, and improved fuel efficiency of the overall passenger and freight fleets. In collaboration with the Washington State Department of Ecology, PSRC developed two technology scenarios: a "likely" scenario, which is probable given current trends and conservative assumptions about fuel prices and other incentives to change technology, and an "aggressive" scenario, which assumes a higher degree of concerted effort to transition the vehicle fleet to a more energy efficient approach. These scenarios, based on extensive national research and in consultation with the Environmental Protection Agency, the Washington State Department of Transportation and the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency, are identified in the chart below. The "likely" scenario results in an additional 25% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and the "aggressive" scenario results in an additional 43% reduction in emissions, beyond the reductions achievable from the transportation and land use strategies contained in Transportation 2040. The application of likely and aggressive technology improvements in the region, in addition to the investments in Transportation 2040, results in a total greenhouse gas emissions reduction between 5% and 28% below 2006 levels' . In order to ensure these potential emissions reduction benefits are achieved, the region and the state should consider opportunities to influence the direction of vehicle and fuel improvements over the next 30 years, for example through legislation, incentives, etc. The two scenarios are described in the chart below. Each component of the technology assumptions are further described in the following sections of this white paper. This discussion will also describe how the assumptions were applied to the modeling output of the investments and strategies contained in Transportation 2040. Potential Vehicle and Fuel Technological Improvements in the Central Puget Sound Region by2040 LIKELY SCENARIO AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO Percent of Electric Vehicles in Fleet Improvements to Fuel Economy Reduction of Carbon Intensity of Fuel Improvements to Heavy Duty Vehicles SECTION 1: BACKGROUND 20% 40 mpg 10% 5% 45% 50 mpg 25% 10% The following discussion details the research conducted by PSRC and Ecology, and describes how the assumptions related to the vehicle and fuel technological improvements laid out in the table above were reached. 1A. Percent of Electric Vehicles in the Central Puget Sound Vehicle Fleet The first supposition regarding the potential for improvements to the vehicle fleet in the Puget Sound region is what portion of the fleet might be converted to electric or hybrid -electric vehicles by 2040. Research conducted on this topic included studies and analyses conducted by the following agencies or institutions (a full bibliography of sources is included at the end of this white paper): • University of California at Berkeley • Argonne National Laboratory • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) • U.S. Department of Energy PSRC does not have a 1990 base year within the current modeling framework, which is the year on which the state's greenhouse gas goals are based. At this point in time we are using our 2006 modeled base year as a surrogate for 1990. L-2 Appendix L: Climate Change Background