2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

■ R.L. Polk & Company • U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) • University of Michigan • Electric Power Research Institute ■ Better Place • JD Power and Associates • California Air Resources Board There are scenarios within these studies and analyses suggesting the percentage of electric or hybrid -electric vehicles in the national fleet could be anywhere from 9% to 50%. For example, the University of Michigan's "PHEV marketplace penetration: An agent based simulation" study indicates a fleet penetration by 2030 of 16%, while the UC Berkeley's "Electric Vehicles in the United States, a New Model with Forecasts to 2030" study reports a possible fleet penetration of 24%. EPA's "A Wedge Analysis of the U.S. Transportation Sector" study, on the other hand, suggests that vehicle technology combined with alternative fuels can represent a 30% market share by 2050. On the lower end, a 2006 presentation by EPA on "Plug -In Hybrids: Background and Scenario Analysis" cited a modeling scenario resulting in a 9% fleet penetration by 2030. Most of the studies and analyses researched are forecasting to either the year 2020 or 2030 and reporting on national fleet penetration rates, whereas Transportation 2040 is looking at potential vehicle and fuel improvements in the Puget Sound region by the year 2040. One point of consideration in creating our assumptions was that by 2040 the Puget Sound fleet should be as close as possible to a full fleet turnover. Further, Washington State and the Puget Sound region are already looking forward on this issue, with several pieces of state legislation and numerous local actions underway with regards to electric vehicle infrastructure. Some examples of this are identified below: • House Bill 1481 requires the installation of charging outlets for electric vehicles, new tax incentives for electric vehicle infrastructure, and the development of an alternative fuels corridor pilot project; as part of this bill, PSRC is called upon to assist local jurisdictions in preparing model ordinances and development regulations allowing for electric vehicle infrastructure • House Bill 1303 set targets for the use of alternative fuels in state vehicle fleets; many local jurisdictions are also pursuing "green fleets," including the City of Seattle • King County has been participating in electrification pilot projects, including the implementation of vehicle recharging stations at park and ride lots • In 2006 and earlier, the state also adopted clean car and renewable fuel requirements Several of the reference documents also point out that it is most likely that the penetration into the fleet of electric vehicles will occur first in the West Coast, since this area has the highest percentage of hybrid vehicle registrations and has the highest demand for these vehicles. In addition, these sources cite the current planning efforts to deploy electric vehicle infrastructure. For example, an analysis conducted by R.L. Polk & Company indicates that registrations nationwide for new hybrid vehicles rose 38% between 2006 and 2007, and that Washington ranked 5th in total hybrid registrations. Growth in Washington State hybrid purchases between 2006 and 2007 was 52% according to this study. Based on the research summarized above, the movement in Washington State and the region regarding electric vehicle infrastructure, and the timeframe of 2040, we categorized the potential fleet penetration of electric vehicles into the Puget Sound fleet by 2040 into the following two scenarios: • Likely Scenario: 20% This scenario is comprised of a fairly conservative assumption that by 2040, 20% of the Puget Sound fleet would be electric, plug-in hybrid electric or other zero to low emission vehicles2. Washington State had approximately 4% of the national share of new hybrid vehicle registrations in 2007; given current issues with reporting at the local level, it is unclear what percentage of the Puget Sound fleet are hybrids or other alternative vehicles, but the Seattle metropolitan region is reported to be second in the nation in per capita hybrid vehicles registrations. It is likely that the share of alternative vehicles in our region will continue to increase over the next 30 years. Given the growth rate of hybrid vehicle sales nationally over the past several 2 The phrase "zero emission vehicles" refers only to the tailpipe emissions; for a discussion of possible "upstream" emissions from these types of vehicles, refer to Section 2. L-3 Appendix L: Climate Change Background