2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

years, and the interest nationally and regionally in more efficient vehicle technology, we feel that 20% is a conservative assumption for the region's 2040 fleet. • Aggressive Scenario: 45% This scenario is comprised of a more aggressive assumption that by 2040, should the region, the state and the federal government more actively pursue the transition to alternative vehicles, 45% of the Puget Sound fleet could be electric, plug-in hybrid electric or other zero to low emission vehicles. Many of the studies and analyses researched indicate the possibility of a greater penetration into the national fleet of alternative vehicles than our conservative scenario. The conservative, or likely, scenario is based on the current conditions in our region and the expected growth in the market. Given all the other factors mentioned — the impetus in Washington State and the Puget Sound region, the expected full fleet turnover by 2040, and the expected national agenda on clean technology — a more aggressive fleet penetration of 45% seems reasonable should a more focused pursuit of this transition occur at all levels. 1 B. Improvements to Vehicle Fuel Economy The second supposition regarding the potential for improvements to the vehicle fleet in the Puget Sound region is what additional improvements in fuel economy might be possible by 2040. Research conducted on this topic included studies and analyses conducted by the following agencies or institutions (a full bibliography of sources is included at the end of this white paper): ■ National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) • Cambridge Systematics • U.S. EPA • California Air Resources Board • Energy Information Administration (EIA) ■ Congressional Budget Office ■ U.S. Department of Energy In September 2009, NHTSA and EPA released a joint proposed rule to update the current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for the light -duty passenger vehicle fleet. Previously, the CAFE standards were 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) for passenger vehicles and 20.7 mpg for light trucks; the light truck standards were updated in 2006 to 23.5 mpg by model year 2010. In March 2009, as a precursor to the subsequent rulemaking, NHTSA set a new standard for model year 2011 vehicles of 30.2 mpg for passenger cars and 24.1 mpg for light trucks, for a combined fleet average of 27.5 mpg. The new CAFE standards once finalized will apply to both passenger cars and light trucks manufactured in model years 2012 through 2016; the joint rulemaking with EPA's proposed greenhouse gas emissions standards for light duty vehicles will achieve a combined average of 35.5 mpg by model year 2016. Given the movement nationally to improve the fuel economy of the future vehicle fleet, activity in California related to fuel economy improvements, as well as legislation in Washington State related to clean vehicles and alternative fuels, we categorized the potential for future fuel economy improvements to the Puget Sound vehicle fleet by 2040 into the following two scenarios: • Likely Scenario: 40 mpg This scenario is comprised of a fairly conservative assumption that by 2040, further strengthening of the CAFE standards for the passenger vehicle fleet is likely. This scenario assumes that the average fuel economy of the Puget Sound passenger vehicle fleet in 2040 will be 40 mpg, compared to the proposed new standards which would achieve a fleet average nationally of 35.5 mpg by model year 2016. • Aggressive Scenario: 50 mpg This scenario is comprised of a more aggressive assumption that by 2040, there is the potential that even greater improvements to vehicle fuel economy can be achieved. This scenario assumes a continued interest at the national level in pursuing cleaner and more efficient vehicles, from a 34.1 mpg national fleet average in 2016 to a 50 mpg fleet average in the Puget Sound region by 2040. It is important to note here that the categories of technology improvements outlined in this report are not mutually exclusive. For example, one way to improve the average fuel economy of the fleet is to include electric vehicles L-4 Appendix L: Climate Change Background