2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

• Aggressive Scenario (25%): a 12% reduction was applied to the greenhouse gas emission results from Transportation 2040 for the remainder of the passenger cars and light trucks. This is an adjustment of 50% from the scenario assumption of a 25% benefit from this strategy. 2D. Improvements to Heavy Duty Vehicles • Likely Scenario: 5% • Aggressive Scenario: 10% As discussed in Section 1, the potential for improvements to heavy duty vehicles providing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions is still an emerging area of research. Although quite a bit of work has been done towards reducing emissions of the heavy duty fleet, most of the results are expressed in terms of reducing emissions of particulate matter or nitrogen oxides. What research is available regarding the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from these improvements indicates quite divergent results. As such, we will remain as conservative as possible in applying benefits to this portion of the Puget Sound vehicle fleet. Likely Scenario (5%): a 5% reduction was applied to the greenhouse gas emission results from Transportation 2040 for medium and heavy duty trucks. While our assumptions have been focused on heavy duty trucks, we believe it is likely that improvements to the medium truck category (e.g., commercial vans and trucks) will also be achieved by 2040. • Aggressive Scenario (10%): a 10% reduction was applied to the greenhouse gas emission results from Transportation 2040 for medium and heavy duty trucks. SUMMARY Based on PSRC's analyses and research, as well as data and research conducted at the national level, Transportation 2040 includes a Four -Part Greenhouse Gas Strategy. Recognizing that it will require multiple strategies and tools to effectively reduce emissions from the transportation sector, the Strategy therefore contains the following elements: • Land Use: building upon the VISION 2040 Regional Growth Strategy to further the goal of providing a jobs vs. housing balance, and to pursue additional refinements through strategies such as transit -oriented development facilities; • User Fees: recognizing its critical role in reducing VMT and emissions, transition the region over time to a user fee/roadway pricing system; • Choices: continue to provide travelers options to the single -occupant vehicle, and continue research into the costs and benefits of various strategies; • Technology: recognizing that improvements to vehicles and fuels will play a crucial role in reducing emissions, PSRC has undertaken research with the Department of Ecology on the potential technological advances that may be likely in our region by the year 2040. The Transportation 2040 emissions results produced from the land use and transportation investments adopted by the PSRC Boards were based on current fleet assumptions and disaggregated into vehicle types — passenger cars, light duty trucks, medium trucks and heavy trucks. Based on the vehicle and fuel technology assumptions and methodologies laid out in this report, the following adjustments to those disaggregated emissions results were made to reflect an alternative 2040 vehicle fleet, representing what might be likely and what might be achieved with more aggressive pursuit of improvements. 1. A portion of the passenger car/light duty truck fleet was assumed to be electric and have zero tailpipe emissions;4 2. After the above calculation was applied, an adjustment was applied to the remaining emissions from the passenger car/light duty truck fleet to reflect improvements in fuel economy for these vehicles; 3. After both of the above calculations were applied, an adjustment was then applied to the remaining emissions from the passenger car/light duty truck fleet to reflect additional benefits from alternative fuels; 4 As noted above, this refers only to zero tailpipe emissions and does not necessarily mean zero emissions; a discussion of potential upstream impacts from the energy production is referenced in Section 2. L-9 Appendix L: Climate Change Background