2014/07/16 Council Agenda Packet

4. Finally, an adjustment was made to the emissions from heavy duty and medium duty trucks, to reflect conservative assumptions regarding future improvements to this portion of the fleet. The results of Transportation 2040's Four -Part Greenhouse Gas Strategy are illustrated in the chart below5. Transportation 2040 has two components — the Financially Constrained portion of the plan, and projects and programs in the Unprogrammed portion of the plan, the combination of which comprise the full plan. CO2 Emissions in Millions of Tons 26— 24— 2040 Baseline 22- 20- 18- 16- 14- 12- 10- 8- 6- 4- 2- 0 2006 T2040(FC) Likely Technology Scenario T2040(FC) T2040 T2040 Agressive Likely Agressive Technology Technology Technology Scenario Scenario Scenario Reductions from VISION 2040 Compared to Trends Reductions from Transportation Strategies Reductions from Vehicle and Fuel Technology As illustrated in the chart, the Four -Part Greenhouse Gas Strategy results in a range of emissions reductions between 31% and 48% below the 2040 Baseline trend, and between 5% and 28% below 2006 modeled emissions in the year 2040. As a comparison, the state's greenhouse gas emission reduction goals are to achieve 1990 levels by 2020, 25% below 1990 levels by 2035, and 50% below 1990 levels by 2050. These results appear to be consistent with the data provided in such reports as Washington State's 2008 Climate Advisory Team report, "Leading the Way: Implementing Practical Solutions to the Climate Change Challenge," which states that the sector -specific "most promising" strategies recommended in that report can "complement, but cannot supplant" the centerpiece market -based policy, and that they alone "cannot (and are not intended to) achieve the longer -term goals in the absence of this market signal." Further, the analyses contained in the report Moving Cooler indicate that even with the most aggressive strategies related to VMT reduction (land use, transit, pricing, etc.) emissions by 2050 are still above 1990 levels. Finally, this analysis is also consistent with the statement that technology alone does not "solve the problem." How we can effectively reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector is an ongoing issue that we will continue to work on, in collaboration with the state and region. 5 Throughout the draft plan and EIS process, the Transportation 2040 results have been compared primarily to the 2040 Baseline alternative, and to some extent also to the 2006 base year (PSRC does not have data for the 1990 year that is consistent with our current modeling framework; therefore, for the purposes of greenhouse gas emissions comparisons the 2006 base year is provided as a surrogate). L-10 Appendix L: Climate Change Background