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11 <br />ERSTAN NG CLIMATE RISK <br />Human society is fit? <br />e trerreevernsSUchU""_, <br />.new normal, new C.Lrren <br />Source: Risky Busii <br />)rin s? bwrithe; with some <br />7t strophic twat? <br />s emerge, and the? it"t:t-e eunurt!ie_. <br />infrastructure :riot gill likely last well into the futuure:: <br />agriculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure. We <br />also look at the impact of climate change on America's <br />labor productivity and public health, which influence <br />multiple economic sectors, These latter impacts also are <br />deeply connected to our shared future quality' of life. <br />As with any risk assessment, our investigation looks at not <br />only the most likely outcomes, but also climate. futures <br />that have a lower probability of occurring but particularly <br />severe consequences should they come to pass. (See <br />"Defining Risk" sidebar, p. 9.) This focus on "tail risks" is not <br />unique to climate change. After all, households and busi- <br />nesses pay a premium for insurance to protect themselves <br />against those tail risks, such as the possibility of flood or <br />RISKY BUSINESS <br />Tha Economic Risks of Climat© Change in the United States <br />r'rcis"ore <br />e r11Str?bur?on curve to the right. O!d extremes become th <br />t:oil. <br />fire, that they deem unacceptable. The rr nary pains for <br />a wide range of possible (arid sometimes unlikely) <br />conflict scenarios, and public heath officials: prepare for <br />pandemics of low or unknown probability. <br />When looking at. climate change, it particularly import- <br />ant to consider the outlier events and not dust the most <br />likely scenarios. Indeed, Inc "outlier" 1-in,100 year event <br />today will become the "I -in-10 year event as the Earth <br />continues to warm. Put another way, over time the <br />extremes will become the "new normal." <br />