Ordinance 3370-14 - Laserfiche WebLink

Despite these advantages, cohort survival can produce forecast errors because it does not consider possible changes in demographic trends.New housing, in particular, can produce enrollment gains that might not otherwise be predicted from past trends. Or,alternatively, a district may lose market share to private or other public schools. It is also possible that a slowdown in population growth will dampen enrollment gains. This appears to be what happened in King County in 1999 and 2000 when overall enrollment in the county declined for two straight years. For the District forecast the cohort survival method is combined with information about market share gains and losses, information about population growth due to new housing construction, and information about regional trends. The population/housing growth factor reflects projected changes in the housing market and/or in the assumptions about overall population growth within the district's boundary area. The enrollment derived from the cohort model is adjusted upward or downward to account for expected shifts in market for new homes, to account for changes in the growth of regional school age populations, and to account for projected changes in the District population. Based on this projection methodology headcount enrollment is expected to increase to 15,460 by 2017. FTE enrollment is projected to increase to 14,762. Recognizing the uncertainty of the assumptions regarding growth,a higher growth model was also produced which predicts a headcount enrollment of 16,299 and an FTE enrollment of 15,607 by 2017. A projection based on OFM population projections for Snohomish County was also produced. The District's October 2011 FTE enrollment(without the Skills Center)is 13,917. This is 1.9%of the estimated Snohomish County 2011 population of 717,000. Assuming that this percentage remains constant, and that the future population of the county aligns with the medium growth projection from the State,the District's FTE enrollment would grow to 15,338 F IE by 2017. An additional projection,using Snohomish County provided population data specific to the Mukilteo School District,results in slightly higher projection of 15,458 FTE by October of 2017. A comparison of the FTE projections derived from the different methodologies is provided in Table 7. The table also includes a straight cohort survival model based on the trends of the past 5 years. This model is similar to the model that OSPI has typically used to create a forecast for all Districts. This forecast shows a result that is slightly higher than the District medium range forecast in 2017 and slightly lower than the District high range forecast for that same year. Due to the uncertainty of the assumptions regarding growth and the length of time it takes to initiate projects to deal with unanticipated growth,this plan uses "Projection#5 —District High"to determine facility needs during the time frame of the plan. (See Appendix B) 12 11