Ordinance 2529-01 - Laserfiche WebLink

IV. STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Projected Student Enrollment 2000-2005 Enrollment projections are most accurate for the initial years of the forecast period. Moving further into the future, more assumptions about economic conditions and demographic trends in the area affect the projection. Monitoring birth rates in the County and population growth for the area are essential yearly activities in the ongoing management of the capital facilities plan. In the event that enrollment growth slows, plans for new facilities can be delayed. It is much more difficult, however, to initiate new projects or speed projects up in the event enrollment growth exceeds the projections. The GMA requires that planning for public facilities be based on the 20-year population projections developed by OFM. This element of the GMA has been interpreted to mean the OFM population forecasts are minimums, which must be accommodated. The District has developed its own methodology for forecasting future enrollments. The District produced its enrollment projections using a variation of the cohort survival methodology. Cohort survival compares enrollment at a particular grade in a particular year, to the subsequent enrollment at the subsequent grade the following year. For example, the enrollment at first grade in 1998 is compared to the enrollment at second grade in 1999. The ratio of these two numbers (second grade enrollment divided by first grade enrollment) creates a "progression ratio", providing a summary measure of in-and-out migration that has occurred over the course of a year. Once progression ratios have been established over a period of years, they can be weighted to predict the likely enrollment in future years3. The District's forecasts also take into account two other factors — market share loss and population housing growth. The market share loss factor reflects the number of students within the District who are enrolled in private schools or within other school districts. The projections used in this report use a loss factor of five-tenths of a percentage point for 2000-2003, decreasing to two-tenths of a percentage point for 2004 and beyond4. The population housing growth factor reflects the number of residential housing permits issued within the District's boundaries. In 1998, the District captured nearly 18.1% of new housing permits within the County, an increase from 10.4% in 1997. The forecasts assume that the growth in the new housing market will continue, and use a 1.021 factor for 2000-2005. For kindergarten projections, birth data from the County for 1988 through 1998 was used. Kindergarten enrollments as a percentage of the births from five years earlier were calculated and averaged. For the past six years, the District has enrolled an average 13% of the county birth cohort, ranging from 14.2% in 1993 to 12.0% in 1999. For the projections, the birth cohort has been gradually increased from 12.5% in 2000 to 12.6% for the remainder of the forecast period . The birth cohort for the 2000 school year is the smallest since 1989, which will result in a smaller 3 The District projection model uses a five year average of cohort survival rates. 4 The decrease in market share is due to the assumption that private schools will reach"maturity"and have reached their maximum enrollment levels. - 12 -