Ordinance 2529-01 - Laserfiche WebLink

kindergarten class. However, after next year kindergarten enrollment is anticipated to rise due to the larger birth cohorts of the past few years. Based on the District's enrollment projections, a total of 1,206 FTE students are expected to be added to the District by 2005, an increase of 9% over 1999 enrollment levels. OFM population-based enrollment projections were estimated for the District using the revised Draft 2012 Population Forecast by School District prepared by the Snohomish County Department of Planning and Development Services, and OFM population forecasts for the County. Based on 1999 population data and actual student enrollment figures for 1999, 2.3% of the total Snohomish County population is made up of FTE students enrolled in the District. A comparison of the total FTE enrollment projections derived using the forecast methodologies discussed above is provided in Table 7. Table 7 - Projected Student Enrollment(200(1 - 2005) FIE 1999* Total Projection (Actual) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Change % Change OFM/County 12,818 13,964 14,380 14,797 15,214 14,523 14,865 2,047 16% OSPI 12,818 12,971 13,135 13,141 13,095 13,129 13,158 340 3% District 12,818 12,835 12,977 13,260 13,461 13,740 14,024 1,206 9% •Actual student enrollment as of October 1999 OSPI projections have been modified by taking out estimated Skills Center enrollment based on past 6 years It can be noted that the District projections do not exceed the OFM forecasts as required by GMA. The District contends that the OFM projections are based on historical information that no longer holds true for the Mukilteo area. The District's own projections take into account recent demographic trends and should be a more accurate reflection of future growth within the District's boundaries. Further information about the District's enrollment projections can be found in Appendix B. 2012 Enrollment Projections Student enrollment projections beyond 2005 are highly speculative. The District projects a 2012 student Fib population of 16,736 - equating to a county birth cohort of 12.8% in the year 2012, compared with the current 1999 ratio of 12.5%. This is based on the demographer's assumption that growth in student population will gradually increase in later years of the forecast period. The total enrollment estimate was then broken down by grade span to evaluate long-term site acquisition needs for elementary, middle and high school facilities. Enrollment by grade span was determined based on recent and projected enrollment trends at the elementary, middle and high school levels. - 13 -