2005/06/15 Council Agenda Packet

Consultants' Final Report - Page 2,5 V. Quasi -Experimental Contrasts The address -specific crime counts in Table 2 are compelling evidence of the public safety hazard posed by the adult businesses on Garden Grove Boulevard. Simple counts do not satisfy the criterion of scientific validity, however, for there are many noncausal explanations for any set of numbers. Validity requires that a change in the operation of an adult business be followed by a change in the crime rate near the business. If the before -after change proves statistically significant, validity requires further that the same before -after change not be found in a suitable "control" area. Only after both criteria are satisfied can we state in scientifically valid terms that an adult business poses a public safety hazard. The fact that the adult businesses on Garden Grove Boulevard have operated continually for the past decade has had an impact on our ability to conduct proper before/after analyses. Ideally, crime should be contrasted in a location before and after an adult business opens. Although this is not literally possible, given the constraints of time and data, there were three major expansions of adult businesses at two existing locations and analyses of these changes confirm the picture of these businesses painted by Table 2. The quasi -experimental contrasts derived from these analyses are outlined in greater detail here. 1) In March, 1982, the Garden of Eden expanded from a single suite at 12061 Garden Grove Boulevard into the adjoining suites at 12063 and 12065 EVER00371