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CITY OF EVERETT FISCAL ANNEXATION ANALYSIS
<br /> The Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) estimates the population of Everett at
<br /> approximately 101,800 in 2007. In comparison, all contemplated annexation areas (including the
<br /> City's MUGAs and gap areas) contain approximately 62,190 people. Exhibit 3 presents the 2007
<br /> estimates of housing units and other key statistics for Everett and each of the potential annexation
<br /> scenarios.
<br /> Exhibit 3
<br /> Key Estimated Statistics for Contemplated Annexation Areas, 2007
<br /> Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7
<br /> Emander,North Eastmont, Eastmont,Hilton
<br /> Emander,North All Areas east All Areas
<br /> City of Everett` Creek and Lake Hilton Lake, Lake,Rugg's All Areas
<br /> Creek Stickney Rugg's Lake Lake,Larimer of 1-5 within UGA
<br /> Housing Untis 43,5801 8,980 11,781 3,586 6,961 12,041 15,941 23,822
<br /> Population 101,800= 19,720 26,510 10,220 20,200 35,680 39,920 62,190
<br /> Land Area(Sq Miles) 34.16 2.5 4.1 2.6 5.1 9.7 7.6 13.7
<br /> Taxable AV(in millions) $10,531.7', $1,259.8 $1,932.9 $1,072.3 $2,217.9 $4,037.3 $3,477.8 $5,970.2
<br /> Miles of roads 3141 36 52 38 70 120 107 172
<br /> Source:Office of Financial Management,2007;Snohomish County Assessor's Office,2007;Berk&Associates analysis,2007
<br /> Note:The annexation area population figures are estimated by(1)allocating housing units at the block level from the 2000
<br /> census, (2) adding the new housing units permitted since the 2000 census (taken from residential permit database,
<br /> annually updated by PSRC), (3) estimating the occupancy rate for single-family and multi-family, and (4) finally multiplying
<br /> by the estimated average household size.
<br /> If Everett annexed all of the contemplated areas, it would add approximately 14 square miles to the
<br /> City's land area, 172 miles to City roads, and $6 billion of taxable assessed value.
<br /> Estimates of current population, housing units, and assessed values in the annexation areas are based
<br /> on Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of Snohomish County Assessor's data extracts,
<br /> Puget Sound Regional Council's housing permit data, and Snohomish County parcel shapefiles.
<br /> Current retail sales tax estimates in the annexation area are based on Berk & Associates' analysis of
<br /> the Washington State Department of Revenue's spatial assessment of taxpayers in the area. In
<br /> addition to taxable sales generated on-site by businesses, Berk&Associates also estimated sales taxes
<br /> on the construction activity anticipated in the area.
<br /> 2.0 APPROACH
<br /> 2.1 Land-Based Fiscal Model
<br /> An annexation fiscal model was developed for this project to estimate revenues and expenses for
<br /> both the existing City and a post-annexation City under different development and policy assumptions.
<br /> The analysis assumes annexation in January 2009 and examines costs and revenues in the
<br /> annexation area through 2027. Taking the analysis out over time allows the City to see how the fiscal
<br /> balance in the City might change over time and how annexation might affect the long-term fiscal
<br /> outlook. Exhibit 4 is a schematic representation of the model.
<br /> EL Final Report:October 2008 Page 4
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