2008/10/15 Council Agenda Packet

CITY OF EVERETT FISCAL ANNEXATION ANALYSIS Detailed Feasibility Analysis Upon narrowing down to a few "most feasible" scenarios, more detailed feasibility assessments were developed. During this portion of the analysis, a considerable amount of additional work was undertaken with several key departments in terms of both operational implications and magnitude of cost impacts. The additional effort was generally focused on police and fire services which are the two departments with the greatest cost implications for the City resulting from annexation. 3.0 LAND-BASED DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS Development assumptions within the City of Everett and contemplated annexation areas are based on Snohomish County Buildable Lands/nventon/, updated in 2007. This assessment of buildable lands provides estimates of future population and employment capacity for all cities and urban growth areas in the county. In general, growth is expected to come from the following primary sources: • Vacant parcels • Redevelopable parcels—these parcels with low-value structures are assumed to have potential for redevelopment;they are identified according to the ratio of land value to improvement value • Partially-used parcels —these parcels with existing structures that use only a portion of the site are assumed to have potential for additional development without demolition of the existing buildings • Pending parcels — parcels with development already planned or permitted by Snohomish County If the parcels are identified as vacant, redevelopable or partially used, land is set aside for wetlands and other critical area, as well as roads, right-of-ways, churches, schools, and parks. In terms of commercial and industrial development, the estimated land capacity was converted to capacity for building structures by applying specific density assumptions. Floor Area Ratios (FAR) of 0.35 for commercial and 0.3 for industrial were used to reflect the current character as well as current zoning of the commercially-zoned land. These FAR ratios generally reflect the potential for one to two story business-park type developments. For example, at an FAR of 0.33, a 100,000 square foot industrial building would require 300,000 square foot of land (approximately 6.9 acres). In addition, some of Everett's large pending projects (such as Riverfront and Port Gardner Wharf) were directly included in the model based on current development plans. For each zoning category of buildable land, an estimate was made of how much of the development capacity is likely to be consumed over the next 20 years. The percent-of-buildout assumption is based on the total capacity in the pending (permitted) category plus a review of historic trends for development in the City and annexation areas. The estimate of development capacity for both residential and commercial lands and the baseline assumptions for 20-year growth are shown in ' City of Everett requested Buildable Lands GIS files from Snohomish County, and Berk&Associates used these files to generate buildable lands figures based on contemplated annexation area boundaries. For more detailed data for Everett, its MUGAs, and gap areas, see Snohomish County Tomorrow 2007 Buildable Lands Report on the County's web site. fl Final Report:October 2008 Page 9