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EVERETT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN <br />EVERETT TRAVEL DEMAND <br />FORECASTING <br />The Growth Management Act (GMA) requires that <br />the Transportation Element supports land uses <br />envisioned in the Comprehensive Plan. An <br />important component of this plan was forecasting <br />how future land uses envisioned in the City, as well <br />as regional growth, would influence demand on <br />Everett's transportation network. <br />• The Tool. A customized version of the <br />Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) <br />Regional Travel Demand Forecasting <br />model was developed for Everett that <br />includes much more detail in Everett and <br />the surrounding communities. This model <br />forecasted traffic volumes during the <br />evening commute period (3-6pm) along <br />many of Everett's key streets and <br />intersections. This tool provides a <br />foundation for developing year 2035 <br />forecasts, as the underlying land use <br />assumptions have been updated to match <br />the land use forecasts for the current <br />Comprehensive Plan. <br />• Estimate Land Use Growth in the City. As <br />a part of the Comprehensive Plan update, <br />the City is planning for expected growth in <br />population and employment over the next <br />20 years through 2035. The city of Everett is <br />expected to have significant growth over <br />the next 20 years, adding up to 6o,000 <br />more people and S5,000 more jobs. The <br />City allocates this growth throughout <br />Everett based on adopted zoning, observed <br />development patterns, the 2012 <br />Snohomish County Buildable Lands Report, <br />and other city policies. <br />• Capture Regional Growth Patterns. Other <br />communities throughout the region are <br />going through this very same process, <br />based on travel data and forecasts from the <br />PSRC. Since travel does not stop at a <br />jurisdiction's borders, it is important to <br />identify how regional growth may influence <br />travel patterns in Everett. In addition to the <br />PSRC regional growth estimates, output <br />from the recently updated Snohomish <br />County Travel Demand Model informs the <br />regional growth component of the Everett <br />model. <br />• Translating Land Uses into Trips. The next <br />step is evaluating how the City and regional <br />growth assumptions described above <br />translate into walking, biking, transit, and <br />auto trips. The travel model represents the <br />number of housing units (population) and <br />employees in spatial units called traffic <br />analysis zones (TAZs). TAZs can be as small <br />as a few street blocks to as large as an <br />entire neighborhood. They provide a <br />simplified means to represent trip making <br />rather than modeling individual parcels. <br />The travel model estimates trips generated <br />from each TAZ (both inside and outside of <br />the City) using established relationships <br />between different land use types with trip <br />making. These trips are then assigned to <br />the roadway network to estimate traffic <br />volumes on each street during the evening <br />commute period. <br />• Model Refinements. The final step is <br />refining the forecasts based on reality <br />checks that the travel model may not <br />capture. For example, because the model <br />cannot account for turn -lane access <br />restrictions, manual adjustments are made <br />to ensure the final forecasts reflect logical <br />traffic patterns. <br />TRANSPORTATION ELEMENT 34 <br />