Ordinance 3010-07 - Laserfiche WebLink

OFM Ratio Forecast Methodology The Growth Management Act requires that capital facilities plans for schools consider enrollment forecasts that are related to official population forecasts for the district. The OFM ratio method computes past enrollment as a percentage of past population and then projects how those percentage trends will continue into the future... Snohomish County prepares the population estimates by distributing official estimates from the Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) to the school district level. The Everett School District considered several OFM forecast -related models (including longer trend and shorter trend) and chose, for comparison purposes the average growth trend for the six- year period 1998-2005. This method was selected for two reasons: 1) using six-year trends to forecast future trends seems to coincide with observed/actual enrollment data. As population grew between 1998-2005, the percentage of students declined, with a slight increase in 2005. The District and OSPI estimate that this decline in ratio will continue into the foreseeable future. 2) OFM yearly population estimates for years 1998-2005 have been reconciled to the 2000 Census by Snohomish County. OFM Population -based Forecast Everett's OFM forecast approach is similar to that of OSPI in that both depict a declining ratio between student enrollment and total population. The difference between the two forecasts is that while OSPI shows a continuous decline from 17.17% in 1996 to a 14 -year low of 14.21% in 2011, the OFM method shows a decline to 14.39% in 2011. That percentage is an average of the OSPI forecasts for 2005-2011. Everett School District D-1 Capital Facilities Plan Historical Ratio Actual Student Enrollment 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Population 102,104 104,004 112,145 113,873 115,117 116,481 117,785 119,088 E Student 17,535 17,633 17,580 17,829 17,669 17,545 17,379 17,700 Enrollment Student/Population 17.17% 16.95% 15.68% 15.66% 15.34% 15.06% 14.75% 14.86% [Ratio The District and OSPI estimate that this decline in ratio will continue into the foreseeable future. 2) OFM yearly population estimates for years 1998-2005 have been reconciled to the 2000 Census by Snohomish County. OFM Population -based Forecast Everett's OFM forecast approach is similar to that of OSPI in that both depict a declining ratio between student enrollment and total population. The difference between the two forecasts is that while OSPI shows a continuous decline from 17.17% in 1996 to a 14 -year low of 14.21% in 2011, the OFM method shows a decline to 14.39% in 2011. That percentage is an average of the OSPI forecasts for 2005-2011. Everett School District D-1 Capital Facilities Plan