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Table _
<br />g
<br />15.50%-
<br />15.00%-
<br />14.50%
<br />5.50%15.00%14.50% - - -
<br />a>
<br />E 14.00%
<br />0
<br />LU 13.50%
<br />2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
<br />• OSPI -m- OFM Ration Method
<br />To forecast annual enrollments using this method, the projected 2011 population (Snohomish
<br />County) was multiplied by 14.39% to arrive at a figure of 18,267. Enrollments between 2004
<br />and 2009 were then "straight -lined to produce the following estimates:
<br />OSPI does not forecast enrollments through the horizon year of 2025 used by Snohomish
<br />County. The District assumed a 15% ratio for that year to reflect GMA policies (infill,
<br />affordable housing, higher density development, etc.) which, if implemented, could draw a
<br />higher proportion of students to its facilities. This percentage would approach the 1990-2000
<br />levels of 16% - 18%.
<br />The enrollments by class level using this method are as follows:
<br />Grade Span
<br />2007
<br />2008
<br />2009
<br />2010 2011
<br />2025
<br />1
<br />M2006
<br />17,329
<br />17,516
<br />17,704
<br />17,891
<br />1 18,079 18,267
<br />21,901
<br />OSPI does not forecast enrollments through the horizon year of 2025 used by Snohomish
<br />County. The District assumed a 15% ratio for that year to reflect GMA policies (infill,
<br />affordable housing, higher density development, etc.) which, if implemented, could draw a
<br />higher proportion of students to its facilities. This percentage would approach the 1990-2000
<br />levels of 16% - 18%.
<br />The enrollments by class level using this method are as follows:
<br />Grade Span
<br />2006
<br />2007
<br />2008
<br />2009
<br />2010
<br />2011
<br />2025
<br />Elementary (K-5)
<br />7,837
<br />7,922
<br />8,007
<br />8,092
<br />8,177
<br />8,261
<br />9,905
<br />Middle School (6-8)
<br />4,033
<br />4,077
<br />4,121
<br />4,164
<br />4,208
<br />4,252
<br />5,097
<br />High School (9-12)
<br />5,458
<br />5,517
<br />5,576
<br />5,636
<br />5,695
<br />5,754
<br />6,898
<br />Total
<br />17,.29
<br />17,516
<br />17,704
<br />17,891
<br />18,079
<br />18,267
<br />21,901
<br />The OSPI enrollment forecasts through 2011 are developed independently by the Superintendent
<br />of Public Instruction using a different methodology. The District chose the OSPI forecast to use
<br />for the development of this CFP based on a comparison of previous OSPI forecast and the
<br />actual enrollment in subsequent school censuses. The OSPI forecast has been very close to the
<br />actual enrollment. The OSPI forecasts an overall decline in the student enrollment.
<br />Refer to Table 4, which compares the results of the various forecast methods.
<br />Everett School District D -2 Capital Facilities Plan
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