2019/02/27 Council Agenda Packet

Draft 7/27/2018 14 the'screenlines match the 2015 medium-growth forecast almost exactly.An estimate of current employment for the Subarea is also consistent with the 2015 medium-growth forecast. However, even though daily volumes have increased as expected,the peak hour,peak direction volumes have increased significantly less than forecast.This result is caused by a much greater spreading of the PM peak period than forecast. In addition,the directional splits were more even than forecast and the amount of mode shift is slightly more than forecast. All of these factors mean significantly higher employment growth can be achieved before exceeding the approved 1.0 V/C ratio for the critical PM peak hour. These results can help inform decisions on possible future increases in employment levels in the Planned Action Area. Based on the 1996 approved assumptions and the 2012 traffic analysis, some revised employment/trip to projections can be made for 2030.They show that: Ym p • With the existing levels of peak spreading,mode share and directional split, an aggregated cordon peak hour V/C ratio just less than 1.0 could be achieved with a Subarea employment level of 88,000 (5,000 employees more than the 2030 High growth alternative): • With a level of mode shift consistent with the regional travel demand model, a V/C just less than 1.0 could be achieved with 93,000 employees (10,000 employees more than the adopted 2030 High growth alternative). • With additional outbound travel lanes on the two most congested screenline locations (SR 526 and Glenwood Ave.) or similar capacity improvements,a V/C of less than 1.0 could be achieved with 98,000 employees, an increase of 15,000 over the High growth alternative. The most conservative analysis appears to allow for an additional 5,000 employees in the Subarea above the approved high growth forecast. These additional 5,000 employees could be allocated to developments on a first-come,first-serve basis,provided that the trip-production thresholds identified in the 1996 EIS are not exceeded. These thresholds could require additional analysis and/or mitigation from any development with more than 50 employees per,developable acre or that generates more than 25 new PM peak hour trips per developable acre. Allocation to the Subarea of between 5,000 and 10,000 additional employees would require a slight mode shift consistent with the regional model forecasts. Though the amount of shift required is consistent with existing travel trends and forecasts,there would need to be monitoring to demonstrate that the modal shift and travel patterns are consistent with the forecasts to allow 5,000 to 10,000 additional employees in the Subarea. This monitoring would consist of new traffic counts at all of the screenline locations and review of V/C ratios at least every two years. c:\users\campk\documents\opened_&om_outlook\attachment c(methodology).doc 110