Ordinance 3254-12 - Laserfiche WebLink

happened in King County in 1999 and 2000 when overall enrollment in the county declined for two straight years. For the District forecast the cohort survival method is combined with information about market share gains and losses, information about population growth due to new housing construction, and information about regional trends. The market share factor reflects the number of students within the District who are likely to enroll in private schools or other school districts. The projection used in this report assumes a loss factor of one-tenth of a percentage point annually for the period of the forecast. The population/housing growth factor reflects projected changes in the housing market.The enrollment derived from the cohort model is adjusted upward or downward to account for expected shifts in market for new homes, and to account for changes in the growth of regional school age populations. Based on this projection methodology headcount enrollment is expected to increase to 14,883 by 2015. FTE enrollment is projected to increase to 14,204. Recognizing the uncertainty of the assumptions regarding growth, a higher growth model was also produced which predicts a headcount enrollment of 15,280 and an FTE enrollment of 14,595 by 2015. A projection based on OFM population projections for Snohomish County was also produced. The District's October 2009 FTE enrollment(without the Skills Center) is 13,581. This is 2%of the estimated Snohomish County 2009 population of 704,300. Assuming that this percentage remains constant, and that the future population of the county aligns with the medium growth projection from the State, the District's FTE enrollment would grow to 15,166 FTE by 2015. An additional projection,using Snohomish County provided population data specific to the Mukilteo School District,results in slightly lower projection of 15,086 FTE by October of 2015. A comparison of the FTE projections derived from the different methodologies is provided in Table 7. The table also includes a straight cohort survival model based on the trends of the past 5 years. This model is similar to the model that OSPI has typically used to create a forecast for all Districts. This forecast shows a result that is slightly higher than the District medium range forecast in 2015 and slightly lower than the District high range forecast for that same year. Due to the uncertainty of the assumptions regarding growth and the length of time it takes to initiate projects to deal with unanticipated growth, this plan uses"Projection#5—District High" to determine facility needs during the time frame of the plan. (See Appendix B) 11