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The City has tried to be consistent with regional forecasts, but has stretched the forecasts to pursue the
<br /> planning goals for the Subarea. Employment distributions discussed above are generally consistent
<br /> with the PSRC regional forecasts, except that these alternatives assume a higher percentage of
<br /> manufacturing jobs in the Subarea. Even with a significant share of the region's manufacturing jobs re-
<br /> allocated to the SW Everett/Paine Field Subarea, most of the job growth in the subarea is predicted to
<br /> be service and office jobs. Of the approximately 19,000 additional jobs forecast by 2012 under the
<br /> Existing Plans alternative, only about 8,300 are predicted to be new manufacturing jobs.
<br /> The City and Paine Field desire that most new development be industrial/manufacturing uses, and in
<br /> fact, most of the developments in the subarea to date have been manufacturing uses, including Boeing,
<br /> Woodtape, Norpro, and Intermec.
<br /> Table 2
<br /> 2012 Existing Plans Alternative (50,000 Jobs) with Desired Employment Distribution
<br /> Manufacturing 42,000 36,014 29,596
<br /> Warehousing, Communications, 1,900 4,005 3,053
<br /> Transportation, Utilities (WCTU)
<br /> Government, Education 1,600 1,635 1,180
<br /> Finance, Real Estate, and Services 4,000 6,851 2,999
<br /> (FIRES)
<br /> Retail 500 1,995 1,577
<br /> Total 50,000 50,500 38,405
<br /> For purposes of traffic analysis, manufacturing and service/retail trips have significantly different trip
<br /> making and trip distribution characteristics. An alternative with more manufacturing uses would
<br /> produce about 15-20% fewer total trips, but a similar level of work and peak trips. The "market
<br /> scenario" consistent with regional forecasts assumes a greater mix of uses and essentially represents
<br /> the `worst case' in terms of traffic impacts. Therefore, the EIS analyzed impacts using the regional
<br /> employment distribution forecasts, rather than the Desired, Higher Manufacturing Uses scenario. If
<br /> more manufacturing growth occurs than predicted in the Subarea Plan, it will likely fall within the
<br /> range of transportation impacts analyzed in the EIS.
<br /> If the subarea develops with a higher percentage of manufacturing uses than predicted, impacts on
<br /> other areas of the environment analyzed in the DEIS may be greater, including air pollution impacts,
<br /> impacts on the City's sewer and water systems, and water quality impacts. However, this plan and EIS
<br /> establish thresholds for the impacts on each of the elements of the environment. No matter what use is
<br /> proposed, as long as developments fall within established thresholds and generate impacts no worse
<br /> than those predicted in the EIS, the environmental analysis is adequate.
<br /> As part of the monitoring plan for the Subarea Plan, the City will track the employment breakdowns
<br /> for new development in the subarea. If actual development trends toward more manufacturing growth
<br /> than predicted by regional forecasts, the City will work with the PSRC to modify regional forecasts.
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